Trust Centre · Research methods
Inspect the observations, dates, transformations and limitations behind a research argument. Confidence is explained from coverage and corroboration; it is not an investment score.
Later retrieval does not make an old observation live. Later evidence does not rewrite a saved interpretation.
A daily close is one venue’s final retained price at the stated UTC boundary. Base volume counts traded asset units. Observed is the candle boundary; Retrieved is DYOR’s collection time. Missing days remain gaps. Same-date residual = (Kraken close − Coinbase close) / Coinbase close × 10,000 basis points, only for positive Coinbase inputs with matching assets, units and periods. A residual is not evidence of fraud or direction.
Hashrate retains the provider’s estimated hashes per second. Difficulty retains adjustment observations at their published times. No interpolation fills absent adjustment dates. Estimated work and difficulty cannot establish adoption.
Retain the provider value and published or observed time, separately from retrieval. A single snapshot supports no trend. Release timing supports no causal price claim.
Inspect the record’s definition, method version and inputs. A derived result inherits its input gaps and source limitations. Unsupported calculations remain unavailable. No numerical confidence score is calculated from source count.
MWEB is an optional Litecoin extension for confidential transactions. Public peg activity and aggregate measurements do not expose hidden transfer amounts, counterparties or private balances. Protocol confidentiality is different from a missing provider feed. DYOR currently has no verified MWEB activity series, so cannot establish increasing usage or changing flows. Counts are not users; peg-ins do not prove new demand; peg-outs do not prove abandonment; net flow does not predict price. ForceX defines its net flow as peg-in minus peg-out minus MWEB fees. This definition is documented but not yet validated against authenticated observations by DYOR.
The Market Grip specification below is an experimental supply framework. It is separate from the current evidence research loop and does not rank the six primary assets or determine Buddy’s conclusions.
MG = 30% Control Concentration + 25% Effective Float Tightness + 20% Overhang Resistance + 15% Supply Constraint + 10% Holder Stickiness.
Every subscore is bounded from 0–100. Missing observations are never replaced by 0 or 50. Available eligible weights are renormalised only after publication gates pass.
A headline requires at least 65% weighted coverage, a resolved supply regime, ownership evidence, effective-float evidence, and no critical supply contradiction. Coverage says how much evidence exists. Confidence describes freshness, source quality, entity resolution, supply-definition quality, model fit and provider agreement. The score range asks whether uncertainty could materially change the conclusion. A categorical band is stable only when the defensible lower and upper estimates remain in the same band; otherwise the score is provisional or suppressed.
Supply Grip asks how difficult it is for additional economically available supply to reach the market. Control Grip asks how concentrated economic discretion is over relevant supply. DYOR is evaluating a non-compensatory candidate where control amplifies supply grip instead of broad ownership subtracting from genuine scarcity. It remains shadow methodology until adversarial, asset-class and identifiability validation support promotion.
Scarce ≠ centralised · centralised ≠ scarce · distributed ≠ liquid · unlocked ≠ sold · custodied ≠ beneficially owned · dormant ≠ permanently unavailable.
Market Grip now preserves verified, derived and bounded observations through an inspectable evidence pipeline. Components, Supply Grip and Control Grip can publish independently even when the composite is suppressed. A bounded Effective Float range is preferred to an unsupported point estimate.
The v2.2 evidence layer can suppress a legacy Market Grip headline when critical domains are missing, Effective Float or control evidence is unsupported, supply relationships are impossible, provider conflict is fatal, the band is materially unstable, or the asset template is unsupported. The safer result opens Research Mode; it does not automatically substitute a shadow score.
A wide mathematical range may be effectively unknown. DYOR labels interval resolution as well identified, partially identified, weakly bounded or effectively unknown using a context-appropriate domain width. Hard bounds, evidence bounds, model ranges, parameter sensitivity and what-if scenarios remain distinct. Scenarios are never presented as today's uncertainty.
Supply buckets are classified as provably unavailable, structurally restricted, conditionally available, behaviourally illiquid, available, highly available, immediately marketable or unknown. Availability is evaluated now, in 30 days, 90 days and 365 days. Dormant is not lost; staked is not automatically unavailable; circulating supply alone remains only a possible upper bound.
Programmed issuance, vesting, cliffs, governance releases and other known events retain release shape, beneficiary, certainty and state. Unlock, claimability, claim, transfer and marketability remain distinct. DYOR shows known supply expansion across horizons without forecasting selling or price.
Economic control, governance control, treasury control, custody and raw address concentration are different observations. A custodian may represent many beneficial owners; many addresses may still share one controller. Unknown ownership remains visible and is never allocated proportionally.
Combines entity concentration (40%), insider/treasury control (25%), independent whale control (20%) and cohort dominance (15%). Raw addresses are explicitly labelled address-level because a wallet is not necessarily a beneficial owner and custodial wallets can represent many users.
Effective float estimates economically released supply that can realistically trade after reconciled strategic, restricted, illiquid-locking and long-dormant adjustments. Haircuts and exclusions remain inspectable. Circulating supply is not automatically free float.
Scheduled 90-day and 365-day releases, stakeholder overhang, governance-releasable supply and cliff concentration are measured against current effective float. Pressure uses a versioned exponential transform; an unlock is not assumed to have circulated or reached a market.
A verified maximum creates an upper bound but not automatic scarcity. DYOR combines cap integrity, issuance maturity and policy immutability. Remaining dilution is (maximum − issued) / issued, which answers a different question from percentage issued.
No fixed maximum does not automatically mean loose supply. DYOR evaluates realised net issuance, its trend and policy credibility. A burn mechanism is not deflation unless verified burns actually offset issuance.
Stablecoins, rebasing assets, liquid-staking units, wrappers, multi-chain deployments and migrations require asset-specific guardrails. Unsupported elastic mechanics suppress the headline rather than being presented as scarcity.
0–20 Loose · 21–40 Open · 41–60 Balanced · 61–80 Tight · 81–100 Highly Gripped. Deterministic archetypes explain whether the structure is distributed scarcity, insider grip, fragile grip, controlled scarcity, elastic supply or unresolved/mixed.
Provider supply definitions, wallet labels, dormant-supply assumptions, unlock states and monetary-policy authority can be incomplete or disputed. Results retain raw observations, provider references, timestamps, transformations, assumptions and methodology version. Scores from different methodology versions are not presented as directly comparable.
A saved research window remains fixed. Completed daily observations may arrive after it closes. Review their original observed and retrieval timestamps, then choose a newer window explicitly. Later records do not automatically revise a saved thesis or its confidence.
Coinbase and Kraken candles use completed UTC intervals. Current partial candles, incompatible units and conflicting values are excluded. Missing intervals remain gaps. BTC, ETH, LTC, SOL, AAVE and UNI daily closes from Coinbase and Kraken, plus Coinbase daily volume, have a bounded collector at 00:25 UTC: at most 12 requests and 54 observations per run. Other evidence families retain their own capture dates.